Sunday, January 29, 2017

Royal Rumble Predictions

Purely from a "fanboy" perspective, the Royal Rumble is arguably the most fun pay-per-view of the year, simply due to its unpredictability.  I don't think anything gets me more excited for the pay-per-view or Wrestlemania than listening to fans and critics argue over who might go into the Show of Shows gunning for the World (or Universal) Championship.

And, lest I disappoint, I'll be throwing my hat into that ring as well (no pun intended).

(No, wait...pun definitely intended.)

WWE has made no qualms about where the Royal Rumble stands in its pantheon of monthly extravaganzas.  They've stretched both the kick-off show and pay per view itself so that the entire event will span approximately six hours.

Six.  Hours.

If you're a WWE die-hard, best get your walking in beforehand if you plan to slog through this marathon.

It's also curious that WWE has made the Royal Rumble now the same length as their biggest event, Wrestlemania.  I guess when it comes to WWE Network, all shows are created equal.

The thing is, even with the Rumble itself taking up approximately an hour of screen time, that still leaves five other matches to power us through the remaining three (that's not counting the TWO--yes, just TWO--matches on the kick-off show).  I'm not sure how WWE plans to fill this void, and I sometimes shudder to think of the vignettes we'll have to endure to get to the end.

KICKOFF SHOW

Sasha Banks vs. Nia Jax

Okay, it's not Sasha vs. Bayley, but it's better than having Sasha sit out while Charlotte and Bayley enjoy the spotlight.

The build has even been pretty well done: a simple series of attacks by a Nia Jax that will no longer be ignored.  Sasha has taken some shots of her own to Jax on Raw, but she's still clearly on crutches, which gives her the perfect protection for Jax to win while she rehabs what we hope is not a serious injury.

WHO WILL WIN: Nia Jax
WHO SHOULD WIN: Nia Jax


WWE RAW TAG TEAM CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH
WWE Raw Tag Team Champions Cesaro & Sheamus vs. The Club (Luke Gallows & Karl Anderson)

It may not be the popular decision, but The Club desperately needs this win.  After a run in Japan that made them true tag team badasses, WWE has done little than use them for bathroom humor and as patsies for the New Day.

Meanwhile, the slapdash team of Cesaro & Sheamus have become a popular act in spite of their lack of apparent chemistry.

While Raw isn't exactly starving for main event players, breaking up Cesaro & Sheamus could go a long way in strengthening the midcard, particularly now that Chris Jericho is the United States Champion.  It does leave the tag division one team shorter, but that's more a call for WWE to step up their game creatively than any fault of the talent (or lack thereof).

WHO WILL WIN: Sheamus & Cesaro
WHO SHOULD WIN: The Club


SIX-WOMAN TAG TEAM MATCH
Becky Lynch, Nikki Bella & Naomi vs. WWE Smackdown Women's Champion Alexa Bliss, Mickie James, & Natalya

Well, it is what it is.  It's a shame that as Raw seems intent to elevate their women to main-event status, Smackdown seems to take two steps back for every step forward.  Just two weeks ago, we had an historic Steel Cage Match for the WWE Smackdown Women's Championship.  Alongside that, we've got an entire other storyline with Nikki Bella and Natalya.  Rather than put each of those feuds on display (particularly on a show that's stretching to four hours), WWE decided to just land them all in a tag team match, faces vs. heels.

Becky Lynch and Naomi clearly have a problem with Alexa Bliss (and by proxy, Mickie James), but Nikki Bella and Natalya have virtually nothing to do with it.  Why they've been smushed into a single match is beyond me.

There's nothing at stake here, and I really don't have a reason to care who wins or loses.  I hope this means WWE is saving something truly special for Wrestlemania, but to say that this matchup is disappointing with such a talented roster is an understatement.

WHO WILL WIN: Alexa Bliss, Mickie James & Natalya
WHO SHOULD WIN: Alexa Bliss, Mickie James & Natalya


WWE CRUISERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH
WWE Cruiserweight Champion Rich Swann vs. Neville

While 205 Live hasn't lived up to the precedent set by the Cruiserweight Classic, it has given someone like Neville a platform on which to reinvent himself and become relevant again.

I mean no disrespect to Swann's in-ring ability, but he just doesn't grab me as a viewer.  He dances out to the ring, he dances in the ring, he dances after he wins.  Then, suddenly, a guy like Neville shows up and suddenly we're supposed to believe Swann is taking things seriously.  It doesn't jive.

Neville, meanwhile, has become one of the best heels on any of WWE's growing number of rosters.  If fans could stop chanting over him because they can't understand his accent, they would see a man frustrated with his place in WWE and determined to change it.  He's yet another of the NXT stars who were drafted to the main roster and subsequently destroyed.  Now he's back to take control of his career once again, and that puts the happy-go-lucky Swann right in his crosshairs.

Characters aside, if given the right amount of time (which shouldn't be a problem on a show that is four hours), these two could have a show-stealing match, showcasing everything we loved about the Cruiserweight Classic and taking another step toward making 205 Live must-see TV.

WHO WILL WIN: Neville
WHO SHOULD WIN: Neville


WWE RAW WOMEN'S CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH
WWE Raw Women's Champion Charlotte Flair vs. Bayley

In case my point about the prestige of women's wrestling on Raw vs. Smackdown wasn't clear enough, let me reiterate: I'm probably more excited about this match than any other match on the card--including the Rumble.

I love Bayley.  You love Bayley.  Everybody loves Bayley.  Once again, WWE proves that the "Keep It Simple" mentality is what works best when it comes to these matches.  Using Bayley's "everyman/woman" connection with the audience to accentuate her as the underdog while also strengthening Charlotte as a prodigy of wrestling royalty may seem a little too high-brow for the audience, but it's thus far struck a perfect chord.

Charlotte has become arguably the best heel in professional wrestling.  From her ring-presence to her mic skills, she's become the total package.  Whereas in her NXT days she did everything she could to prove she'd made it on her own, she's now flaunting the Flair name and insisting that the door to WWE was opened to her because of it.

Once again, this match should be given the proper time.  A good 20-25 minute back-and-forth battle could set Bayley up for bigger things and establish Charlotte as one of--if not the--greatest women's wrestlers and champions of all time.

It's doubtful that Bayley will come out the winner here given that WWE may save that for a true Wrestlemania Moment (tm), and that's perfectly fine with me as long as Bayley is given a chance to prove that she belongs in the same conversation with the other three Horsewomen of NXT now that they've all been given a chance to shine on bigger stages.

This could very well be the match of the night.

WHO WILL WIN: Charlotte Flair
WHO SHOULD WIN: Charlotte Flair


WWE UNIVERSAL CHAMPIONSHIP
NO DISQUALIFICATION MATCH
(WWE United States Champion Chris Jericho will be suspended above the ring in a shark cage)
WWE Universal Champion Kevin Owens vs. Roman Riegns

I want to believe that Roman Reigns will not be gaining his fourth (FOURTH!) world championship on Sunday.

I really want to believe it.

But I can't.

Anyone can see from a mile away that the real build is to Owens vs. Jericho at Wrestlemania.  That's good news for fans who aren't into the Owens/Reigns feud, but bad news for anyone who was expecting Reigns to disappear from the main event scene.

Owens and Jericho is a great friendship that should make for a great feud.  The only problem, where Reigns-haters are concerned, is that the feud doesn't require a title to be at stake, which leaves the door wide open for a Reigns win this Sunday and a showdown with...someone...at Wrestlemania.

If Reigns wins, we can see Rollins--assuming he's not already embroiled in fisticuffs with HHH--chasing his former Shield brother for the title in a bid for "The Game's" attention.  Of course, with Rollins and HHH's feud inevitably culminating at Wrestlemania, that begs the question of who would take on Reigns for the title at the Superbowl of Wrestling.  That question could be answered at the Rumble as well, but we don't know.

If Owens wins, it's unclear how we'd get into a feud with Jericho, as Jericho has a title of his own.  I'm sure WWE could conjure some way to have Y2J cost KO the title, or vice versa, but I can't see Owens going into 'Mania as Champion when the feud works just as well without it.  It also leaves Reigns out in the cold with nothing to do, unless he's gifted one title or the other in the process.

I don't envy Chris Jericho, whose job it will be to basically sit (or stand) in a cage for twenty minutes or so and bark about how unjust his imprisonment is.  I'm also not clear how any of that will factor into the outcome of the match.

Two things that /are/ clear: WWE really wants us to like Roman Reigns.  They also have no idea how to make that happen besides giving us no alternative.

WHO WILL WIN: Roman Reigns
WHO SHOULD WIN: Kevin Owens


WWE WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH
WWE World Champion A.J. Styles vs. John Cena

No matter what happens Sunday, AJ Styles may go down as having the single best rookie year of /any/ WWE Superstar.  This Sunday will mark the anniversary of Styles' debut, and perhaps the end of his incredible reign as Champion.

To WWE's credit, you almost forget that we've seen this match a couple of times already.  There really are only two questions to ask, and they go hand-in-hand:

1.) When will John Cena get his record-tying 16th World Championship?

and

2.) How much faith does WWE have in AJ Styles?

AJ hasn't had such great luck when it comes to contenders for his title.  Dean Ambrose (a lot), Dolph Ziggler, and (ugh) James Ellsworth are arguably his most memorable feuds.  That's partly due to the Cena's absence and the thinness of the Smackdown roster.  So Cena's return from hiatus not only re-invigorated /Smackdown/, it gave Styles a clear objective: either overcome Cena once again, or say goodbye to your title.

Much like the WWE Universal Championship match, anything is possible.

If Styles retains, it could set up a great Wrestlemania match, regardless of who he faces (Cena, The Miz, and Bray Wyatt are some popular names to throw out there).  Even in defeat, seeing AJ walk into Wrestlemania with the gold around his waist could be a career-defining moment.

A loss makes things a little muddy for the Phenomenal one.  He would certainly be entitled to a rematch, but it most likely wouldn't happen at Wrestlemania, given that there's two months between the events and a 30-day defense clause (supposedly) in a champion's contract.

So in the event Styles loses, there are two routes: he can have his rematch and lose, which seems most likely.  Rumors of a Styles/Undertaker match at 'Mania would then be free and clear to pollute the internet at will.

However, there is one person we're neglecting in this calculation, and that's John Cena and his record-tying reign.  If Cena were to win at the Royal Rumble, it would set up Styles for a rematch.  A rematch Styles could win.

This does a couple of things: First, it keeps Styles as a fixture of Smackdown's admittedly tiny main event scene.  Next, it gives WWE and John Cena an easy way to eclipse Ric Flair's record in a matter of weeks instead of years.

With AJ as Champion in say, the middle of March, that leaves him as the guy walking into Wrestlemania, and John Cena owed a rematch.  It easily sets up Cena to win his 17th World Championship on the Grandest Stage of Them All, and gives AJ his Wrestlemania moment.

Unfortunately, for that to happen, he has to lose this Sunday.

WHO WILL WIN: John Cena
WHO SHOULD WIN: AJ Styles


ROYAL RUMBLE MATCH

Okay, here's the big one.  I'm gonna make this as succinct as possible.

Here's everyone slated for the Rumble as stated on WWE.com:

The Undertaker
Golberg
Brock Lesnar
Big Show
Dean Ambrose
The Miz
Sami Zayn
Dolph Ziggler
Big E
Xavier Woods
Kofi Kingston
Bray Wyatt
Randy Orton
Luke Harper
Mojo Rawley
Braun Strowman
Chris Jericho
Baron Corbin
Cesaro
Sheamus
Big Cass
Rusev

That's 22 participants, leaving 8 vacant slots.

We can safely assume that Lesnar and Goldberg will eliminate each other.  The Undertaker will like be eliminated by his Wrestlemania opponent.  Dean Ambrose doesn't need a Rumble win, nor does Ziggler, or any member of the New Day (they will die simultaneously in costume).  The Wyatt Family is busy with their own drama, Sheamus & Cesaro will either be champions or enemies coming out, and please don't get me started on the lunacy of having BIg Show or Mojo Rawley as your victor.

That leaves Sami Zayn, Braun Strowman, Chris Jericho, Baron Corbin, Big Cass, The Miz, and Rusev.

If I had my pick of the "Final Four" from this list, we've got Zayn, Jericho, Miz, and Rusev.  Of those four, Jericho and Miz have the strongest chance of winning, but it all depends on how the night's title matches shake out.

Then there's the those eight empty spots.  There's been a lot of talk about who could be filling them.  You can bet WWE will be digging into its pool of Hall of Fame and Alumni for some of them.  So who is most likely to show?

Triple H: He was last year's winner, and he's got a beef with Seth Rollins.  It only makes sense he would find his way into the match, even if it's just to set up Rollins/HHH at Wrestlemania.

Samoa Joe: The only high-profile member of the NXT roster without a match Saturday's Takeover, and someone who has been soundly exiled from the NXT Championship picture.  This is almost a given.

Kurt Angle: I know this seems like a lay-up for most, but WWE has only inducted one active wrestler into the Hall of Fame, and that was Ric Flair.  It'd be odd to put Angle in that category.  Even if Angle did have "one more match" in him, I doubt WWE would waste it on a Rumble appearance when he's probably least likely to win.

Finn Balor: Just like Angle, this seems obvious, assuming Balor is in condition to compete at all by Sunday.  Reports were swirling that WWE would know the answer to that question in the next 24 hours or so, but assuming Balor /is/ ready to compete, do you want to take that chance that he re-injures himself in the Rumble rather than save him at full strength for Wrestlemania?  I seriously doubt it.

Kenny Omega: This is perhaps the farthest reaching of all the rumors, particularly when you consider Omega will still be under contract with New Japan Pro Wrestling until February 1st.  John Cena has been posting pics of Omega all over social media, which is great for getting a buzz from your audience, but may be more of a courting gesture than any hint that a deal has been finalized.  Omega has also gone on record that he doesn't particularly enjoy WWE's creative directions and would rather be known as the greatest wrestler to never appear in WWE.

Shinsuke Nakamura: This largely depends on how Takeover pans out, but even if Nakamura were to lose to Bobby Roode, he'd be due a rematch.  You're much more likely to see Nakamura debut the week following Wrestlemania than make a brief Rumble appearance just to slide back down to the developmental brand.

Bobby Roode: Again, this depends on what happens Saturday night, but even should Roode lose to Nakamura, I don't see WWE draining the already small NXT talent pool for the sake of a Rumble appearance.  Even if they did, the odds that they would shoot Roode right to the main event of Wrestlemania with a Rumble win is astronomically unlikely, making his appearance here little more than lip service for the NXT faithful.

Even were all these men to appear, that still leaves an open spot for a surprise entrant to be named later.  And that's what makes this match so exciting: it's truly impossible to predict who will appear and when.

WHO WILL WIN: Chris Jericho
WHO SHOULD WIN: Finn Balor

FINAL THOUGHTS

The difficult part about predicting any outcome of any match in January is that Wrestlemania is just around the corner, and while we should be living in the thrill of the moment, the truth is that we are all dissecting what happens here so that we have a better idea of what to expect come the spring spectacular.  Whereas most other events can be considered self-contained, what happens this Sunday will more than likely have far-reaching consequences as WWE seeks to build toward the biggest event of their calendar year.

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